Will robots kill jobs, or create new ones? The issue is a controversial one among experts. We investigate the differing views.
The introduction of robots will turn much of our world of work upside-down,” claims Dr Martin Sonnenschein, Partner and European Head of Management Consultancy A.T. Kearney. “In 20 years’ time, almost half the current jobs in Germany will have been replaced by robots which can do them more efficiently.” Dr Sonnenschein made that claim back in late 2015 at the presentation of a survey conducted by his organisation as part of its social initiative titled “Germany 2064 – our children’s world”.
According to A.T. Kearney’s analysis, a quarter of all job profiles in Germany – that’s over 300 – are at high risk of being lost to automation in the next two decades. The potential impact on the labour market is dramatic, because the sectors concerned employ 17.2 million people – 45 per cent of the total workforce. However, even a job that is highly likely to be automated will not necessarily disappear completely.
A survey conducted in the same period by the Ing-Diba bank highlights the issue in concrete figures: It claims that 18.3 million jobs are threatened by advancing technology in Germany alone. Both surveys transfer the methodology applied by economist Carl Benedikt Frey and engineer Michael Osborne to the US labour market in 2013 to Germany. According to Frey and Osborne, 47 per cent of jobs in the USA are highly likely to be “robotised”. The World Bank has also calculated the prospects for India and China using the same methodology: Its conclusion is that in India 69 per cent of jobs would be under threat, and in China even 77 per cent.
Low-paid jobs are particularly impacted: According to the “Economic Report 2016” published by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), 83 per cent of such jobs are at risk of being replaced by robots with artificial intelligence in the long term. But it is not just unskilled workers who need to be worried: Market analyst Gartner forecasts that more than 3 million workers worldwide will be supervised by “robo-bosses” by as early as 2018. Those “robo-bosses” are not robots in the conventional sense, but software systems which measure and monitor employee’s performance data – more efficiently and accurately than a human manager could do.
One thing is certain: Automation will have a major impact on the world of work. “That means we need to be willing to embrace change, and show flexibility,” warns A.T. Kearney’s European Head Dr Martin Sonnenschein. “Anyone capable of doing that will be in a position to profit from these dramatic changes too – whether as an employee or an employer. We can wait, and be rolled over by automation. Or we can engage courageously with the change, seeking flexibly and with curiosity for the new opportunities it will open up.”
The German Engineering Federation VDMA regards the job losses forecast by Ing-Diba as a clear misjudgement: It claims the survey overestimates the potential of robot chefs, humanoid hotel robots and parcel delivery drones for example. A survey conducted on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Labour also contradicts Ing-Diba’s claims: After investigating the automation potential of activities – rather than jobs – it shows that no more than 12 per cent of job profiles are highly likely to be automated.
The fact that worries about robots taking over human jobs are unjustified is demonstrated by the German automotive industry: Between 2010 and 2014, the numbers of industrial robots in use increased by 15 per cent, to 92,000 units. In the same period, the number of people employed in the industry rose by 10 per cent, to 775,000. Moreover, it is claimed that the collaborative robots now coming onto the market will open up lots of new potential applications.
The Boston Consulting Group also sees automation as a positive development. It reasons that, while some jobs are disappearing, entirely new ones are being created. According to its calculations, the loss of some 610,000 jobs will be countered by around a million posts that could be created by 2025. “New technologies such as Augmented Reality and robot-aided workstations can even help low-skilled workers to integrate back into the labour market,” asserts Markus Lorenz, BCG partner and expert in Industry 4.0 (also referred to as Smart Manufacturing).
Workers, in Germany at least, are aware of the changes happening in the world of work. Rather than regarding them as a threat to their jobs, they are focused primarily on the benefit such technologies will bring to their everyday working lives. That is demonstrated by a survey from Accenture Strategy published to coincide with the World Economic Forum in Davos in early 2017. Frank Riemensperger, CEO of Accenture in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, nevertheless has a warning: “Digital change can only succeed if companies invest more heavily than they have to date in helping their workforce develop new skills and acquire additional qualifications. That is less about retraining them in new jobs than ensuring their skills keep pace with new technologies. Ultimately, digitisation will not result in job losses, but it will impose new demands on workers. The importance of continuous professional development will rise greatly, not least because the half-life of our knowledge is becoming ever shorter in view of the rapid advances in technology.”