More than a third of CO2 emissions from end-use sectors are attributed to transport. Electrification of road transport is the most significant lever for greater sustainability. However, climate-neutral alternatives are also being sought for aircraft and ships.
The transport sector remains reliant on fossil fuels. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), around 8 gigatonnes of CO2 are currently emitted annually by vehicles, ships, and aircraft. To achieve the net-zero target, emissions from the mobility sector would need to decrease by about 25 percent to 6 gigatonnes by 2030.
91 percent of the transport sector’s final energy consumption still relies on petroleum products, reflecting a reduction of only 3.5 percentage points since the early 1970s.
Source: IEA
Greatest Potential in Road Transport
Most emissions originate from road transport, making the electrification of road vehicles the most effective way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, electric vehicles are no longer a niche topic. Their share of new car sales in Europe has risen from less than 1 percent in 2019 to 16 percent in 2023, according to McKinsey. Despite the abolition of purchase subsidies in markets such as Germany at the end of 2023, sales have remained stable. In the first half of 2024, over 875,000 new battery-electric vehicles were sold across the continent.
Focus on Batteries and Power Electronics
The battery and electronics industries play key roles in further advancing the electrification of road vehicles. Future technologies such as solid-state batteries, with better energy density, charging time, range, fire safety, and cost efficiency, will set new benchmarks. In the field of power electronics, silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) semiconductors with wide bandgap properties are increasingly finding applications due to their high efficiency and energy savings. The next developmental stage, still in its infancy, is diamond semiconductors. Meanwhile, innovative packaging technologies are driving miniaturisation.
However, the success of electric vehicles also requires modernisation of the electricity grid. Developing synergies between grids and electric vehicles is crucial. Smart charging, Vehicle-to-X (V2X) technology, improved flexibility, and data interoperability are all important measures towards this end.
Alternative Fuels for Ships and Aircraft
In aviation and maritime sectors, alternatives to fossil fuel-powered engines are also being explored. On short routes – such as with passenger drones or ferries – battery-electric propulsion systems are already under testing or even in partial use. However, for deep-sea shipping or long-haul flights, the required battery capacity would be too high. Therefore, alternative fuels are being developed for these areas. Promising options include powering ships with hydrogen, ammonia, or methanol – when produced using renewable energy, they offer a means to significantly reduce emissions.
In the aviation sector, hybrid-electric aircraft and hydrogen-powered planes – whether through direct combustion, onboard fuel cells, or a combination of both – are in various stages of conceptualisation and prototype development. Among potential decarbonisation measures, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to make the most significant contribution. Certified for use in today’s jet engines, sustainable fuels produce approximately 80 percent fewer greenhouse gas emissions than fossil kerosene. SAF is an umbrella term for all aviation fuels that, unlike conventional kerosene, are produced without using fossil resources like petroleum and also meet sustainability criteria. Various methods exist for producing SAF, with Power-to-Liquid (PtL) and Sun-to-Liquid (StL) technologies being particularly promising for the future. These are currently in the process of being scaled up to large-scale industrial production.
However, the SAF industry is still in its infancy. According to estimates by the International Air Transport Association, production capacity in 2024 will not exceed 1.5 million tonnes, barely accounting for 0.5 percent of total jet fuel demand. If airlines follow through on their plans to reduce emissions, the demand for SAF could rise to more than 20 million tonnes by 2030.
Net Zero only with Additional Measures
To sustainably and successfully reduce emissions in the transport sector, electrification is essential. However, operational and technical measures to increase the energy efficiency of all modes of transport are also necessary. Moreover, policy must promote the shift to less carbon-intensive modes of transport, such as walking, cycling, and public transport.
