Why not?”, says Prof. Amos Albert, CEO of Deepfield Robotics, when asked whether he would have permitted a self-driving car to bring him to this meeting of experts. Prof. Eric Sax, Director of the FZI Research Centre for Information Technology in Karlsruhe, is a little more cautious: “I wouldn’t like to drive in a car without having a view of the road. The systems are not yet sufficiently sophisticated for that.” On that point, all the round-table participants are essentially in agreement. “At the moment, there is no vehicle on the market that has more than level 3,” according to Jens Kahrweg, General Manager EMEA at Savari. In his opinion, this is also because the legislation has not yet been adapted and liability issues must still be clarified. Prof. Sax also believes that the greatest difficulty is not in the technology, which is already available by and large, but more in making the autonomous systems safe: “With traditional methods, you look to see if the system is executing the action that was previously defined. But the plethora of situations that arise in daily road traffic can no longer be mapped with this method.” Albert agrees that it is simply not enough to calculate the failure probability of hardware and software in order to determine the safety of a self-driving vehicle. “When the ambient conditions are changing too quickly, the safety of the system cannot be calculated. We need other methods.” According to the CEO of Deepfield Robotics, one option is the proof test, for example allowing vehicles to drive as many kilometres as possible with the technology activated, and monitoring them to verify the reliability of that technology. Another is to define safe states and then ensure that the vehicle can return to such a state in the event of a problem. “This would obviate the need to calculate so many potential situations”, according to Albert.

“If autonomous driving is sold as a service, this will also reduce the entry barriers for users.” 

Prof. Amos Albert, CEO, Bosch Deepfield Robotics

AI and V2X will be available in a few short years

However, the variety of possible real-world situations to which a self-driving car must respond is not just a massive challenge for safety and reliability. Prof. Sax explains: “As it is impossible to predict every event, a self-driving car needs artificial intelligence.” In this way, it can gain experience independently and learn how to respond correctly. The technology is still in its infancy, however. “But in just a few short years, this will no longer be an obstacle to progress,” asserts Prof. Amos Albert. “The computing power will then be available thanks to Cloud-based systems and deep learning applications.”

In the future, the knowledge gained would then be shared between the self-driving vehicles themselves. According to Jens Kahrweg of Savari, however, the vehicle networking required to do this still needs to be created. Savari was founded in 2008 and is in the process of developing the necessary V2X solutions. “Networking like this would act like another sensor and offer additional redundancy, in order to ensure the functionality of a vehicle.” While the future mobile communications standard 5G does not exist yet, this should not be a problem in five years’ time, according to Kahrweg. “How widely this is then rolled out and whether it can actually do everything it promises is something we are working on with the industry. But it should then be possible to network vehicles.” On the other hand, the modified Wi-Fi standard IEEE 802.11p has already been introduced. “The exciting question is whether both technologies will exist in parallel in the future – that’s what we’re hoping for at Savari. Because, among other benefits, having two systems increases the functional safety of self-driving vehicles.”

“Autonomous driving will -revolutionise entire business models.”

Thomas Staudinger, Vice President Marketing, EBV Elektronik

One of most important challenges of autonomous vehicles is cybersecurity

While networking and comprehensive communication do increase safety, they also simultaneously represent a risk, as pointed out by Thomas Staudinger, Vice President Marketing at EBV Elektronik: “Every point in such a network is a possible target for hackers. In a successful attack, not only could an individual vehicle be manipulated: an entire fleet could.” FZI Director Sax considers the over-the-air updates of future vehicles to be a particular risk: “Software is loaded onto the vehicle – and it will be a huge challenge to identify whether or not it is valid.” With hardware security building blocks, authentication and cryptography, a first firewall can be built. “We are also working on anomaly detection methods,” explains Prof. Sax. This is essentially based on the concept that the usual signals exchanged within the vehicle by the various components are known and can be checked for their plausibility. “The moment an unknown pattern emerges, the anomaly detection springs into action.” In the extreme case, the vehicle can then be brought into a safe state. “Ultimately the cybersecurity of the vehicle is a question of system architecture,” says Staudinger. “To create a solution here, however, the most varied of players must come together – by that I don’t just mean the car manufacturers or companies like Google and Facebook, but also all the very different stakeholders in such a network.”

“The networking of vehicles with one another has already begun; the missing connection, the networking with the infrastructure, will be made possible on a comprehensive scale by future mobile technologies.” 

Jens Kahrweg, General Manager Savari EMEA

Upheaval for car manufacturers

Jens Kahrweg sees advantages here for car manufacturers who are just coming into the market: “For a manufacturer who has been producing millions of cars for decades, it is much more difficult and costly to completely overhaul their entire vehicle architecture to suit this new reality. Someone starting from scratch, however, can achieve this innovation leap much more easily.” The established car manufacturers will have to deal with significant upheaval as a result of self-driving cars – because the points of focus will change and software will play a very different role. Prof. Sax adds: “This is why the companies from Silicon Valley are walking all over us. But there is a limit to how much they can do that, because the traditional car manufacturers have other know-how – for example, in the fields of mass and variant production. However, the German car industry in particular will have to make some effort to tackle this learning curve. In future, it will no longer be the gap size that determines whether a car is sold.” Prof. Amos Albert does not believe that the demise of the traditional car manufacturers is imminent either: “Naturally, other companies are very strong in selected software technologies at the moment. But everyone is working at full throttle on new algorithms and at some point, this will even out and the old strengths will play a role again.”

On one thing, all the round-table participants are agreed: the success of car-makers will depend more on whether they can adapt their business models. “In the future, we will not be selling a car, we will be selling mobility,” says Thomas Staudinger of this development away from a product and towards a service. “Perhaps the manufacturers of the future will no longer sell their cars to private customers, but to fleet operators instead,” opines Jens Kahrweg, pointing to transport service operators like Uber or car-sharing operators like Car2go. “When a car-maker is manufacturing only for large customers, the OEM can quickly become a Tier1,” according to Staudinger. Kahrweg continues the line of thought: “And when the OEM develops into a mobility service provider, the suppliers can move up from below and take over the corresponding added value.”

“Electromobility with electrified, decentral actuators and auxiliary equipment will be a door-opener for autonomous driving functions.”

Prof. Eric Sax, Director, FZI – Research Centre for Information Technology

From niche to mainstream 

And yet these huge changes will only be relevant if the autonomous car actually establishes itself on the market. The best way of doing that is for it to offer a financial advantage. “Of course, it is wonderful to have a goal of completely eradicating road deaths by 2050,” says Thomas Staudinger. “But ultimately someone must be paid to make autonomous driving a reality. Everything moves more smoothly when the bottom line shows a profit.” This is also why Prof. Sax is firmly convinced that autonomous driving will first be realised in the commercial vehicle sector. “According to estimates, a haulier or municipal service provider can save up to 50 per cent on their costs by introducing self-driving vehicles.” FZI has, for example, run the figures for the Stuttgart public transport service and calculated that it could save well in excess of 100,000 euros on personnel costs per year by automating the trips to the depot. “Autonomous driving will develop from precisely these niches, from applications with manageable scenarios. And that can be done right now,” says Sax.

The post Challenges of autonomous vehicles appeared first on Future Markets Magazine.

Prof. Ernst Dieter Dickmanns is more than a little envious when he sees the technologies that autonomous vehicle developers have at their disposal nowadays. “Computing power per microprocessor today is almost a million times greater than when we started. The volumes of computers and sensors are less than a thousandth of what they were back then.” “Back then” was the late 1980s, when Prof. Dickmanns, born in 1936, began developing an autonomous car. Right from the start, he worked on what is now commonly termed “computer vision”. “When you look at the role vision plays in biological systems, it has to offer major advantages for technical systems too.” That was the idea that led him to develop a method of teaching cars to see.

Seeing in real time, even without high computing power

“Even back in 1975, we were seeing computing power per microprocessor increasing by a factor of 10 every four to five years,” Prof. Dickmanns recalls. 1975 was the year when he – at the age of just under 40 – joined the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich. “It was likely that computing power would increase by a factor of a million by the time I retired. That was likely to be enough to permit video analysis in real time, which would be an entirely new technical accomplishment.” Dickmanns and his team began developing a method that was to turn “computer vision” into a reality before his retirement. In the 4D method, as he terms it, the data captured by cameras is digitised and processed by the computer merely as abstract lines with adjacent grey-scale areas. Rather than comparing the current image against the previous one, as was common practice at the time, he used motion models in three dimensions and integrated time (which is why the method is termed “4D”) in order to understand the observed process in the real world. These models predicted the expected features in the next image. As a result, much less data was created. Even using the processors available at the time, simplified scenes could be processed in 100 milliseconds – corresponding to real time in the automation world.

“I do consider safe autonomous driving on all kinds of high speed roads to be important.”

From Munich to Copenhagen – almost fully autonomously 

The first vehicle fitted out in this way was running autonomously on blocked-off test routes as far back as 1987. The technical systems needed to do that literally filled cabinets – the first test vehicle was a Mercedes van with a five-ton payload: the VaMoRs (a German acronym standing for “test vehicle for autonomous mobility and computer vision”) provided sufficient capacity to accommodate a power generator and several metres of industrial control cabinets for the electronics. But just a few years later, the space taken up by the equipment had shrunk significantly. The “VaMP” vehicles from the University of the German Armed Forces and ViTA-2 from Daimler were both based on a Mercedes saloon car, and were results of the Prometheus project initiated by the European automotive industry. Both projects were supervised by Prof. Dickmanns. From 1993 onwards, the cars were able to run completely autonomously on roads with normal traffic. The crowning glory was a trip from Munich to Copenhagen. The test vehicle covered 95 per cent of the 1,700-kilometre journey with no intervention by the driver – changing lanes, overtaking other vehicles, and attaining a top speed of 175 kilometres per hour. It was a sensation back then – and remains a benchmark for modern-day self-driving cars. The 4D methodology is now an integral element of autonomous vehicles, and Prof. Ernst Dieter Dickmanns is acknowledged globally as the pioneer who taught cars to see.

Recipe for successful research

By the time he retired in 2001, he had developed many more solutions in the fields of computer vision and autonomous driving. Asked what his recipe for success might be, he lists four points: “The conviction that your idea is better than any other; acquiring adequate research funding; selecting appropriately qualified staff and doctoral students; and engaging widely in intensive dialogue with partners in industry as well as with international scientist colleagues at conferences.” He believes that anyone capable of bringing those attributes  to bear on a project, alongside their own creativity, has what it takes to be a successful researcher and inventor. Not everything Dickmanns experienced in his scientific career was positive, however. Looking back, he offers a word of advice: “I would be even more cautious than I was in selecting industrial and scientific research partners, and make sure that key points are laid down in writing.”

No worries 

But Prof. Dickmanns is far from being truly retired. He continues to follow developments in autonomous driving, gives lectures, and still has ideas about how to improve computer vision: “Given the current state of the art in technology, I would directly target solutions that have proven their worth in biological systems. One of the features I would install would be little eyes with dynamic direction-of-view stabilisation and control, fitted at the top of the A-pillar on the left- and right-hand sides of the car.”

Would he really be prepared to ride in a fully autonomous car today? His answer is clear: “If there was one, yes.” He can also imagine buying one of the new cars that are able to park themselves and drive autonomously in traffic jams: “Though I don’t place great value on parking. I do, however, consider safe autonomous driving on all kinds of high-speed roads to be important.

The post The Pioneer of Computer Vision appeared first on Future Markets Magazine.

Hack your car yourself

US company Comma.ai has launched Panda, a type of dongle that can be connected to a car’s OBD-2 port. It enables all the data generated on board the vehicle to be read out. Together with the software tool Cabana, users are able to “hack” their own car and modify its systems. This might allow semi-autonomous functions such as automatic cruise control or brake assist to be programmed, provided the vehicle has the relevant sensors.

The device was developed by George Hotz – famous on the hacker scene for having been the first person to hack the iPhone, aged just 17, and subsequently doing the same to the Playstation 3 at the age of 20. Hotz originally wanted to market a complete “self-driving kit” for less than 1,000 dollars. But he gave the project up after the US Highway Traffic Safety Administration demanded testing and certification, which would have been too costly to undertake.

Hotz’s vision is to develop an open operating system for self-driving cars which, like Android, is capable of running on a wide range of devices, or in this case car models. He has developed a set of software solutions for the purpose: the ­“chffr” Cloud app is a dashcam app which can be used to record journeys. When linked to Panda, the app can also capture all the on-board sensor data and upload it to the Cloud. Comma.ai intends on using the data to enhance future autonomous driving functions. The benefits of that will also be felt by Openpilot, an open-source software program developed by Comma.ai, using which self-driving functions can be integrated into a car via the Panda dongle.

Comma.ai claims to have already collected data from over 1 million miles of driving, and to have the third-largest network of data suppliers after Tesla and Waymo. Hotz’s aim is to enable autonomous driving at level 3, based on selling low-cost hardware together with a monthly subscription to the Comma network. As the number of users increases, delivering data from ever more roads, the aim is eventually for the full-package solution to even enable level 4 or 5.

www.comma.ai

Help for wine-growers

French company Naïo Technologies specialises in robots for agriculture and viniculture. One of them is Bob, an autonomous robot running on chain tracks which helps wine-growers with tough tasks such as weeding and hoeing. Bob runs autonomously along the rows of vines, weeding both between the rows and among the vines, and moving from row to row with no human intervention.

www.naio-technologies.com

Efficient collection of marine data

California-based Saildrone is developing and manufacturing a fleet of autonomous wind and solar powered water-borne vehicles. Their aim is to collect marine data cost-effectively on a large scale. This will be used to gain new findings for weather forecasting, managing the global carbon cycle, the fisheries industry, and climate change research. The Saildrones navigate autonomously to their assigned destination, hold position there, or run specific search patterns.

www.saildrone.com

Flying Taxi

Volocopter is looking to fulfil every human’s dream of flying. The German company develops vertical take-off, fully electric multicopters for passenger transportation and to serve as heavy-duty drones. The technical platform enables the pilot to fly by remote control and fully autonomously. High redundancy of all critical components assures the high levels of safety of the flying taxis. The first Volocopter is scheduled to be licensed and launched onto the market in 2018.

www.volocopter.com

Taxi, car and Bus in one

With Italian design and American know-how, Next is developing a smart road transport system based on a swarm of modular self-driving vehicles. Each of the electrically powered modules can connect and disconnect to and from other modules. The idea is that passengers will be able to order a vehicle using an app. If multiple modules are running on the same stretch of road, they will link together to create a vehicle chain. This will save energy and space on the roads.

www.next-future-mobility.com

(picture credit: Comma.ai; Next Future Mobility; Tien Tran/Naio Technologies; Volocopter; Saildrone)

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The Quintessence: Hand on heart, would you travel in the kind of autonomous vehicle that exists today?

Frank-Steffen Russ: I would, and I’ve actually done it! Admittedly, it was a test vehicle at autonomy level 3 or 4, so it was some way off being a genuine robotic vehicle. But it’s important that we recognise the limitations of the technology these vehicles are using – they may be referred to as autonomous, but many of them are still undergoing trials and need more interaction with drivers in hazardous situations, for example. As users, we need to be aware of that fact.

Where do autonomous vehicles fit into EBV?

F.-S. R.: Autonomous systems are important parts of our Industrial, High-Rel and Automotive segments. Autonomous driving, flying and working all involve a range of disciplines, requiring a certain amount of thinking outside the box – and that’s exactly what EBV can deliver. We operate in all kinds of different applications: actuators, environment sensors, sensor fusion and connectivity, as well as cross-discipline areas such as on-board electrical system structures, security, and data management. That enables us to contribute our skills in significant ways across different segments. To take a few examples, our RF & Wireless segment provides products that support radar technologies for environment sensors, we create LightSpeed solutions for lidar applications, and we deliver high-end, camera-based technologies and solutions for sensor fusion as well as artificial intelligence. In the field of connectivity, our RF & Wireless and Security & Identification technology segments allow us to cover two major areas in vehicle networking. Together with the industry-specific expertise we have gained from working in these various market segments, we have what it takes to play a significant role in the evolution of autonomous vehicles.

Where do semiconductors come into autonomous driving? 

F.-S. R.: Today’s semiconductor technology is advanced enough to support the systems required for autonomous driving. These systems can be used to establish both wired and wireless versions of high-speed data networks – which in turn form the groundwork for networked vehicles. State-of-the-art data centres are proving a boon for transport infrastructure planning. Thanks to high-performance processors, it is possible to simulate and optimise even exceptionally complex traffic situations. Vehicles themselves are also benefiting from increasingly integrated computer technology – in particular, multi-core systems that are available at an affordable price and with the same standards of quality found in automotive applications. By using cutting-edge semi­conductors, driver assistance systems are already playing a major role in reliably preventing accidents and critical traffic situations.

Specifically, what kind of electronics components does EBV provide for creating autonomous vehicles?

F.-S. R.: Put simply, we offer a combination of semiconductors and our expertise. Autonomous systems need to deliver functions that people can rely on. And that means using components which meet the very highest standards of durability, fault tolerance and reliability – from simple diodes to sensors and all the way through to complex multi-core µC systems.

What else can EBV offer in order to help companies make their visions of autonomous vehicles a reality?

F.-S. R.: The structure itself is the cornerstone of our sales concept. As well as an ability to advise on technology, it is becoming increasingly important to be an expert in systems so that you can actually bring complex structures like autonomous systems to life. In this area, we help companies identify who the right system partners for them might be. These partners are able to provide hardware, software, design support, production services and much more in order to bring a product idea to fruition. As well as this, we work in partnership with semiconductor manufacturers so that we can support our customers with the right tools and reference platforms. This allows our customers to benefit from significant reductions in their development times – or take advantage of the latest technology for their product concept in cases where they are moving into a different field.

Networking is a huge talking point in areas like wearables. Are there any technologies this field is using that you think could be adopted in autonomous vehicles too? 

F.-S. R.: Absolutely. One example comes from my own experience with hearing aids. Hearables are already very advanced, but the fact that vehicles are becoming increasingly quiet – especially electric cars – is posing a real challenge for them. So why not incorporate hearables into V2X communication and have intelligent warnings from vehicles relayed directly into the ears of pedestrians?

Something else to consider is the fact that the environment sensors in autonomous vehicles collect huge amounts of data that could be used in other applications – like weather, to take a basic example. In this case, a vehicle could be a sensor for precipitation that is about to occur in the local area – and that information could then be used in agricultural applications or for planning sports events, for instance. Networked vehicles will not only receive data about traffic flow – they’ll also be able to pass data from their surrounding environments directly onto road users in the vicinity, or even onto the Internet via a Cloud server, allowing the information to be relayed to a whole host of users.

As networking and autonomy are gaining a higher profile, so too is cybersecurity. What does EBV offer in this area?

F.-S. R.: Our segmented strategy means we have the potential to deliver best practice in every area. We provide support for cybersecurity through our Security & Identification technology segment. This allows us to ensure that our customers are always kept informed about the latest developments in technology as well as methods that are being applied.

What about communications equipment? Smart buildings have given rise to technology such as Li-Fi, a kind of wireless network based on lighting. Can you envisage using applications like this too? 

F.-S. R.: If a vehicle has a wireless network – such as a WLAN – then the surrounding area undoubtedly has a similar connection. Let’s take the example of Dedicated Short-Range Communications, or DSRC, a system that exchanges data in real time: Li-Fi could definitely offer an alternative to this. In fact, LED daytime running lights, headlights and rear lights could already be used for this purpose. That would enable communication with traffic lights or traffic management systems without wireless interference in the viewing range.

How do you think autonomous vehicles will change mobility as we know it? 

F.-S. R.: Autonomous vehicles will be essential if we want to achieve the WHO and EU aims of creating a safer traffic environment by 2050. I also believe that the period between now and then is when we will see changes occur. In ten to 15 years’ time, I think technology is bound to have reached level 5 of autonomous driving. However, it will be another few years after that before the technology moves from its initial premium segment to a level at which it is available to all.

Autonomous agricultural machinery will allow us to minimise soil compaction by harnessing concepts such as swarm farming – and that will mean significant changes for crop cultivation.

Where transport is concerned, autonomous heavy goods vehicles could propel truckers’ job descriptions from simply driving to mobile shipping, dispatching and monitoring of freight. The driver’s seat will become a mobile office.

Both aviation and shipping are already benefiting from the ability to manage traffic volumes more easily. Autonomous processes have been introduced in these areas, but volumes are only going to increase – and as that happens, we will need to move even further in the direction of full automation.

The post Developing autonomous vehicles appeared first on Future Markets Magazine.

“If you really want a good insight into what the future is likely to hold, then you need to understand how social and technical processes interact with one another.”

The Quintessence: Your work at the Zu­kunfts­institut examines all kinds of different areas. Do you find trends cropping up in more than one area at the same time? 

Matthias Horx: Looking at fashion-based trends, socioeconomic trends, technological trends and megatrends, those are all long-term drivers of specific changes such as globalisation or urbanisation. Then there are metatrends – these have a long-term impact on the way we evolve as a whole. Once upon a time, the famous 1960s futurist Herman Kahn talked about a concept called a long-term multifold trend. This could be seen as an evolutionary principle in and of itself – a kind of theory of everything that revolves around the world becoming more and more complex. It’s also important to note that the term “complex” shouldn’t be confused with “complicated”!

What role do technological developments play in your predictions of the future?

M. H.: Technology is an important driver of change, but it’s not the only thing doing that. If you really want a good insight into what the future is likely to hold, then you need to understand how social and technical processes interact with one another. Not every innovation will make a breakthrough on the market. Right now, for example, we’re seeing a lot of hype around robots with increasingly human features. However, I predict that they’ll be a flop. Although we’re fascinated by the idea of creating artificial humans, at the same time it makes us uneasy – that’s a natural response. So ultimately, we’ll end up sending our metal and plastic friends back to the lab. I do think that industrial robots will make huge inroads in factories everywhere, however.

What does the future of mobility look like?

M. H.: In general, mobility is set to dematerialise and become more attuned to certain cultural aspects. Nowadays, it’s still perceived as somewhat functional – something to take us from A to B. In most cases, we travel simply because we need to cover a certain physical distance. That’s starting to change, however. Increasingly, we are gaining the possibility of crossing the miles using virtual technologies and being in places thanks to telepresence. At the same time, we are seeing the emergence of a new kind of nomad – people who are always on the move and have forged a lifestyle out of this. Mobility has become a lifestyle.

Generally speaking, where do autonomous vehicles come into this – including ships, planes and trains?

M. H.: All these areas are going to feel the effects of autonomous driving – it’s a question of when, not if. It could be that ships are actually even better suited to full automation than cars are, because road traffic is exceptionally complex to navigate. In the first 20 to 30 years, I believe we will have a role as pilots in our vehicles; it will be around 2040 or 2050 before we see full autonomy making a genuine breakthrough. The technology will need to develop rapidly at that point, though – a hybrid situation in which some vehicles are still being driven and some are autonomous is unlikely to work. However, I believe that most trains will already be running as automated systems by 2040: the technology involved in this is much easier to master.

In your study into the evolution of mobility, were there any results or findings that surprised you?

M. H.: It was surprising to see just how open people are to an alternative kind of mobility. When it comes to cars, people have extremely divergent opinions. On the one hand, you have the 40 per cent who are still dyed-in-the-wool car fans – for them, owning a car is inextricably linked with identity and they are still zealous advocates of the combustion engine. On the other hand, there are people who drive frequently but hate being stuck in all that traffic. Diesel cars and their impact on the environment are a factor for this group too. Particularly in cities, there are a lot of people who no longer own a car and are quite happy with that – in fact, they see it is something liberating and an essential part of their quality of life.

Did the study only consider road traffic?

M. H.: It was a significant part of the study, of course, although we did seek to gain an all-encompassing understanding of mobility processes. In today’s world, road traffic primarily refers to cars, but that view isn’t set to last. Cities are on the brink of becoming Copenhagenised – which means that cars will soon become bit players and streets will be the domain of pedestrians, cyclists and mobile traders instead.

You also talk about multimodal mobility in this context. What does that refer to?

M. H.: To put it simply, it means creating seamless networks of various modes of transport so that they can be used around the clock and combined with one another. What’s admittedly great about cars is that you can just throw your luggage in and then go from A to B. However, we can make that happen in the future by combining other modes of transport too – let’s say, electric scooters and delivery bicycles, or trains and drones. And it won’t involve too much expense or effort to do so.

Many analysts believe that the automotive industry will reach its zenith within the next 10 to 15 years. When 2040 comes around, what role do you think cars will be playing then?

M. H.: I would be careful about making any pronouncements on this subject. Technically, the automotive industry has already reached its zenith – it can’t progress any further as it currently stands. But it’s also set to change. It’s going to merge with the energy and computing industries, and when that happens, we’ll have to start calling it something different.

What impact will autonomous vehicles have on our lives?

M. H.: We do lots of things in the car that we used to do in the office or at home – we sleep there, we live there, we work there, and so on. However, that also raises difficult questions: for example, does driving count as time spent at work? The answer isn’t clear. For many people, the reason they love driving is that it has a certain relaxing quality to it – provided traffic is flowing smoothly, at least. You can sit and listen to music, or you can have a snooze if you’re a passenger. It doesn’t have to be a very intense activity, and that’s where many people believe the sense of relaxation and autonomy comes into it. Self-driving cars could eliminate that feeling, so many people are instinctively against them. Then there are the people who don’t like autonomous driving because it removes the aggressive aspects of the activity. It means no more tearing along the roads and controlling the wheel; no more flashing others on the motorway – so the question really becomes a case of where the outlet for all their pent-up rage is going to be.

But won’t autonomous vehicles afford us more freedom too?

M. H.: It’s true that they will free us from the need to spend whole years of our lives behind the wheel of a car. But you can already do that simply by taking the train. The fact remains that many people enjoy being slaves to their vehicles – in the same way that they seem to enjoy buying furniture from Ikea and then building it themselves. We’re actually quite happy to be dependent on technology and give our freedom a back seat. Why else would people put up with the bizarre experience of sitting in traffic jams?

Hand on heart, what developments have personally surprised you the most, because you simply didn’t see them coming?

M. H.: Trump.

One of your books is called “Guide to Future Optimism”. Why should we take an optimistic view of the future?

M. H.: Being an optimist is quite a silly thing in and of itself, because it usually means taking a naïve approach. The smartest people among our ancestors weren’t optimists – if they had been, they would have been dead before the point at which they were able to procreate. I see myself as a possibilist. I think in terms of possibilities, and I choose the best ones as visions of the future that we should strive towards.

Mobility 2040:
Digital organisation and individual networks

“In the future, the challenges that mobility is set to face will be in individual, intelligent networking,” said President of the ADAC motoring association Dr August Markl upon the publication of the Zukunftinstitut’s study “Die Evolution der Mobilität” (“The Evolution of Mobility”). “Our models of mobility are becoming more multifaceted and complex. What we are on the brink of is not a disruptive mobility revolution, but rather evolution and change that will become increasingly deep-seated.”

The Zukunftsinstitut’s study exploring the future states that our need for security, good health, an unspoilt environment and a generally high quality of life is set to become even more important. Digitalisation will be one of the pillars of tomorrow’s mobility solutions. Futurists believe that these growing mobility requirements will also bring about changes in the way in which we use cars as we approach the year 2040. They expect to see a much stronger network developing for the different modes of transport that move individuals around. Digital platforms will make it possible to integrate public transport infrastructures and sharing services.

New lifestyles, brought about through changes such as the way in which we work or our increasing lifespans, are also set to have a long-term impact on individual patterns of mobility. By 2040, the researchers believe that personal mobility will be found in all kinds of different formats to suit different groups – ranging from IT-savvy “mobile innovators” to “silver movers”, the over-75s with their own distinct set of challenges.

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