Space heating and hot water generation account for about half of the global energy consumption in buildings. Nearly two-thirds of heating energy comes from fossil fuels. In 2022, heating and hot water generation directly and indirectly emitted around 4.2 gigatonnes of CO₂, representing more than 80 percent of the building sector’s CO₂ emissions.

“The Paris climate goals require a very conscious use of available resources. For heat supply, this means using as much available energy as possible and supplementing it as needed,” explains Dr. Dietrich Schmidt from the Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology IEE.

Heat pumps utilise existing environmental heat and, with the help of electricity, raise it to a higher temperature level. As the required electricity is expected to be generated CO₂-free in the All Electric Society, heat pumps are a crucial component in decarbonising the heating system.

The global heat pump market is expected to expand at an annual growth rate of 11.8 percent, increasing from 90.1 billion US dollars in 2024 to 157.8 billion US dollars by 2029.
(Source: MarketsAndMarkets)

Supporting the Electricity Grid

In addition, heat pumps help balance the energy system and can support the electricity grid. Since heat can be stored more easily than electricity, these systems can be combined with a water storage unit to heat in advance when sufficient electricity is available on the grid and is particularly inexpensive.

“Heat pumps fit well into a climate-neutral energy system, as they can operate in response to electricity supply. Through central grid-friendly control, they can turn on when solar and wind energy provide sufficient power. This contributes to smoothing out peaks in demand and supply in the electricity grid. This flexibility is a key component for a future energy system,” says Dr. Dietrich Schmidt.

Improving Efficiency

The primary goal in advancing heat pump technology is to increase efficiency. A key factor in this is drive technology: by improving the power electronics of the inverters, which control the compressor and, depending on the type, the fan, the overall efficiency of a heat pump can be enhanced. The use of silicon carbide semiconductors in the drive inverters can reduce losses in the entire drive system by up to 15 percent. Additionally, various manufacturers offer integrated power modules that manage the energy flow to the inverters. These modules include power semiconductors as well as many passive discrete components – a typical power module replaces between 45 and 100 discrete components. The advantage of this solution is a smaller footprint and significantly shorter development times.

Compression via Rotation

In addition to “classic” compressor heat pumps, alternatives are also being developed: conventional heat pumps use the two-phase Rankine cycle. In contrast, the heat pumps from the Vienna-based start-up Ecop utilise the Joule cycle, where the working fluid does not undergo a phase change and remains in a gaseous state. Compression is achieved through centrifugal force: the working gas of the heat pump circulates in a closed loop that rotates around an axis. This rotational heat pump achieves significantly higher efficiency than conventional heat pumps, with a temperature lift of up to 100 Kelvin and output temperatures of 200 degrees Celsius. However, the heat pumps from the Austrian start-up are (so far) true giants – eight metres long and weighing 16 tonnes. Due to their high output temperature, they are primarily used in industrial processes.

The Electrocaloric Principle

Researchers from various Fraunhofer Institutes are taking a different approach: they are developing an “electrocaloric heat pump” that operates without a compressor. In this process, an electrical voltage is applied to an electrocaloric material made of special ceramics or polymers, causing it to heat up. Once the voltage is removed, the material cools down again. Using power electronics, the electrocaloric capacitors are charged and discharged several times per second, with heat being pumped in each cycle. The researchers have developed an ultra-efficient circuit topology for voltage converters based on GaN transistors, achieving an electrical efficiency of 99.74 percent in the electrical power path.

“Achieving a high coefficient of performance in electrocaloric heat pumps requires very high efficiency in materials, electronics, and heat transfer,” says Dr. Kilian Bartholomé, project leader and researcher at the Fraunhofer Institute for Physical Measurement Techniques IPM. “If we can master all of this, electrocalorics has enormous potential.”

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The human brain contains about 86 billion neurons. They communicate via electrical impulses, which among other things initiate muscle movements. Wouldn’t it be elegant to be able to bypass the detour taken by traditional Human Machine Interfaces from the brain through the muscles to flipping a switch and instead directly control a device with the brain’s electrical impulses? Thanks to Brain Computer Interfaces or Brain Machine Interfaces (BMI), this is now possible.

Devices are becoming smaller and more affordable

In 1925, the German psychiatrist Hans Berger recorded the first human electroencephalogram (EEG). Since then, technology in the field of Brain Computer Interfaces and data processing has continually improved. For at least ten years, the trend in EEG hardware has been to make these devices smaller, wireless, portable and more affordable. Basic brain wave measurements can already be taken through relatively simple headsets, enabling more and more practical applications outside the laboratory. Ultimately, BCIs could be used not only for controlling neuroprosthetics but also for all computer-assisted devices like smartphones and tablets, or a smart home. A increasing number of non-medical use cases is also becoming more and more conceivable, ranging from the PC gaming industry to the simultaneous control of drone swarms. The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is even working on an advanced communication system based on BCIs: the idea is for soldiers and military personnel to be able to issue commands telepathically using the “Silent Talk” solution.

Medical applications still dominate

The medical sector is still the main market for BCIs. “Active and passive BCIs are already being used to improve movement control in Parkinson’s patience via deep brain stimulation, detect epileptic seizures and diagnose brain diseases. Digital and technological progress offers unprecedented new possibilities and has sparked broad scientific and economic interest,” explains Professor Florian Mormann from the German Society for Clinical Neurophysiology and Functional Imaging (DGKN).

BCIs can also translate brain activity into control signals for external devices such as prostheses, robots and exoskeletons. Bidirectional BCIs, moreover, allow for the brain to be electrically stimulated, for example to simulate a sense of touch when controlling a prosthesis.

“Medical technology has made huge progress during the last few years,” says Professor Alessandro Del Vecchio, head of the Neuromuscular Physiology and Neural Interfacing Laboratory (N-squared Lab) at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg (FAU). “However, much research and development still needs to be done in terms of fine motor skills, for example to enable movement of individual fingers of paralysed hands.” Together with the Institute for Factory Automation and Production Systems at the FAU, the N-squared Lab aims to develop a neuro-orthosis that restores hand function so that patients can perform more than 90 percent of everyday tasks independently. “Our aim is to move the fingers and the thumb of the hand independently of one another and with a high level of strength,” says Del Vecchio.

Increasing accuracy

BCIs can generally be divided into invasive systems that are implanted into the brain, semi-invasive and non-invasive systems. Non-invasive BCIs currently have the largest market share because they spare the patient from having to undergo a laborious and risky surgical brain procedure. “We have already developed a non-invasive BCI system that allows people with high spinal cord injuries to grip everyday objects by voluntarily changing their brain waves,” says Professor Surjo R. Soekadar, Einstein Professor for Clinical Neurotechnology at the Charité – Berlin University Medicine. “Despite considerable progress, it has not yet been possible to control complex hand movements with such a non-invasive system.” Yet this is precisely what Professor Soekadar’s team is striving to achieve: they are currently testing the use of ultra-precise sensors, so-called quantum sensors, which can measure brain activity with much higher accuracy on the surface of the head than EEG or other non-invasive methods. The basis of the high-tech sensors is gaseous atoms that act as magnetic field probes and respond to electrical brain signals.

Chip in the brain

Implanted BCIs can capture brain impulses even more precisely. Companies such as Synchron and Neuralink are already testing such implants on humans. Elon Musk, who co-founded Neuralink in 2016, has promised that the technology “will enable someone with paralysis to use a smartphone with their mind faster than someone using thumbs”. Ultimately, however, the implanted chip is intended to make the human brain more powerful – even to the extent of merging the brain with artificial intelligence. According to Professor Mormann, this is still pure science fiction based on current knowledge: “Neuro-enhancement means targeted and specific influencing of brain activity. The prerequisite for this is a detailed and mechanistic understanding of this activity. Our knowledge so far is still too incomplete and patchy.”

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Machines have been indispensable partners to us humans in everyday life since time immemorial. It is not only in large production halls or complex industrial manufacturing processes where human and machine-supported processes closely interlock. The number of electronic devices used in the private sphere is also continually increasing – from washing machines to smartphones. Interfaces are the key to enabling humans to interact with these machines or systems.

HMIs use a broad spectrum of functional principles and technologies.

Variety of solutions

The design and functional principles of these Human Machine Interfaces can vary hugely – from a simple mechanical toggle switch to a touch display or a connected mobile device (such as a notebook or smartphone), to name a few.

The operation of machines has changed enormously over the centuries: the first human machines were operated predominantly via levers and cranks. This purely mechanical form of control was increasingly supplemented and eventually replaced by electrical buttons and switches when electrification started at the end of the 19th century. The next major change was brought about by automation and digitalisation: once computers started being used to control systems and machines, it became possible to visualise functions on screens and operate them via keyboards and input devices.

New possibilities through digitalisation

The invention of touchscreens has blurred the boundaries between the display and operation of functions: monitors can now recognise when a user touches a symbol or field and can subsequently translate this action into a digital command. Apple’s products, such as the iPod or iPhone, are iconic examples of how intuitive touchscreens have simplified the operation of devices. They are now also prevalent in industrial systems, in smart home applications and in cars.

Digitalisation has enabled devices and the operation of these to be increasingly adapted to the human user and their personal capabilities. Not only can HMIs now be customised to the individual operator, they can also be modified again and again to reflect new machine functions.

Augmented and virtual reality have also entered the world of Human Machine Interfaces: for example, maintenance and operating personnel can now use smart glasses that provide information from the machine directly “in front of the employees’ eyes”, meaning they no longer have to leaf through manuals to maintain the system.

AI opens up new possibilities for Human Machine Interfaces with the aim of more efficient interaction.

Smart interaction thanks to Artificial Intelligence

The invention of Siri and Alexa a few years ago marked the emergence of another technology on the market – one that has significantly changed the way humans interact with machines: voice control. In many areas today, it is almost a matter of course that a user can give commands directly to devices with their voice – whether in the car or when playing their favourite songs. According to Statista, around 4.2 billion voice assistants were used worldwide in 2020. By 2024, this number is expected to double to up to 8.4 billion. The technological advancements in the underlying artificial intelligence are what have enabled the use of effective voice recognition today. Even in industrial production, it is possible to operate machines by voice despite the interfering background noise.

AI also provides the basis for another form of operation: gesture control, whereby humans can interact with a machine through gestures and movements. Contactless gesture recognition is a complex system that uses several technologies in addition to AI, such as sensor fusion and image recognition using camera systems. So far, the use of gesture control has been largely limited to computer games. But now we’re seeing machines also being equipped with this innovative technology and it is already possible to control robots with gestures.

The latest HMI development is systems that allow the operator to control devices solely by thought. Some companies in the medical industry are already testing implanted chips that capture brain impulses and translate them into digital commands, for example for writing emails.

From pure operation to assistance

In the future, Human Machine Interfaces will provide various different assistance functions for commissioning, operating, servicing and repairing machines, and also support the process of training users on new systems. Research is already being conducted on solutions that can psychologically interpret human behaviour and register their attention and control capabilities. These so-called empathetic HMIs make it possible for machines such as cars and robots to recognise the intentions of humans in order to work with them flexibly, proactively and safely.

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James Cameron’s 1984 film “Terminator” is a classic that still shapes many people’s perception of Artificial Intelligence to this day. In the film, a computer system developed by the military was to start a devastating war against humanity in 1997 to protect itself from being shut down. Now in the 2020s, the horror scenarios predicted in “Terminator” and similar films have not come to pass. Nevertheless, AI has now become a part of professional and private everyday life, enabling a new era of human-machine collaboration: chatbots respond flawlessly to questions, smart home devices are controlled by voice and cobots work hand in hand with humans. AI systems are the basis for many innovative Human Machine Interfaces like voice and gesture controls.

Attempt at a definition

But what exactly is meant by Artificial Intelligence? There is, in fact, no universally accepted definition in science or practice. The draft of the European “AI Act” defines artificial intelligence as “software that is developed with one or more (…) techniques (…) for a given set of human-defined objectives and generates outputs such as content, predictions, recommendations, or decisions influencing the environments they interact with.” At its core, AI uses algorithms and complex mathematical models to analyse data and identify patterns. Like humans, AI is supposed to learn from experience, make judgments and solve problems independently – to be able to perform tasks increasingly better.

Several subareas

The term “artificial intelligence” covers several subareas, including Machine Learning and Deep Learning. In Machine Learning (ML), the system independently discovers connections based on example data. Thus, AI systems can learn from data and solve problems on their own without being explicitly programmed in the form of rules. Machine Learning is particularly suitable for recognising and generating so-called “patterns” from existing datasets – for example, the system can thus recognise which gesture a hand performs. Deep Learning goes a step further by automating further aspects of the learning and training process. Deep Learning algorithms can decipher unstructured datasets such as texts or images, so much less human intervention is required.

AI becomes creative

Thanks to ChatGPT, the latest technological developments in AI are currently a hot topic – the so-called generative AI and foundation models. They are capable of independently generating content such as software code, texts, images and music. This sets generative AI apart from “classic” discriminative AI, which is designed to differentiate and classify input but does not create new content. Compared to previous AI models, generative systems are particularly powerful as they are trained based on a very large amount of data. With this breadth and amount of information, foundation models can, for example, translate between languages and systematically work through tasks. In terms of HMIs, they offer advantages in voice control, among other things: the conversation with the machine is more natural, and responses can be given based on the context. Additionally, generative AI can process complex commands better. Instead of simple actions, users can give more detailed instructions: the AI can interpret these, ask follow-up questions if necessary and generate appropriate actions.

Legislative regulation

Despite all the advancements, artificial intelligence is still far less sophisticated than portrayed in Hollywood blockbusters. Nevertheless, regulations are needed so that AI can make the right decisions. An AI system is only as good as the database with which it was trained. There have already been several practical examples of AI systems having a certain “bias” because the database was not diverse enough. If, for example, a language model were trained only with a North German dialect, the later system would have problems understanding someone from southern Germany. To make AI safe and trustworthy, the European Union has introduced legislation to regulate its development and use: the AI Act. This regulation, which is expected to come into force in 2026, is intended to ensure that AI systems used in the EU are safe, transparent, understandable, non-discriminatory and environmentally friendly. AI systems should be monitored by humans and not by automation to prevent harmful results. Thus, the “Terminator” should remain pure science fiction in the future.

Boom in Edge AI processors

14.54 billion US dollars in 2022

54.38 billion US dollars in 2029

To realise AI functions in Human Machine Interfaces, so-called Edge AI processors are important as they can evaluate the data directly on-site and thus ensure a quick  response to commands. According to Maximize Market Research, the market will grow by an average  of 20.1 percent annually in the coming years.

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Thumbs up, waving, the open hand as a stop sign – gestures are a natural form of communication for humans. Thanks to significant advancements in sensor technology and artificial intelligence in recent years, it is now possible to control machines and devices through gestures.

The breakthrough came with the introduction of Nintendo’s Wii console in 2007 and Microsoft’s Kinect motion control in 2010. Both solutions were developed for the gaming market – and entertainment electronics still dominate the gesture control market today. According to market analysts from Grand View Research, the segment had a revenue share of 59.4 percent in 2022.

However, other industries are also discovering the benefits of gesture control for operating devices and machinery: for example, both the automotive industry and healthcare sector have placed great emphasis on adopting gesture recognition. This technology makes it easy and intuitive for users to interact with computers and other devices. The COVID-19 pandemic has further focused attention on gesture control, as it enables contactless and thus hygienic operation.

Gesture recognition market in 2031: 88.3 billion US dollars

In 2021, the market had a volume of 13.9 billion US dollars. Accordingly, the expected average annual market growth is 20.6 percent.

Source: Allied Market Research

Control via Wearables

Various different technologies are used to detect user movements. One option is special wearables, such as bracelets or rings, equipped with motion sensors that capture the rotation rate or acceleration of the wrist. An intelligent algorithm recognises which gesture has been performed and issues the corresponding command.

Camera-based Solutions

Another approach is camera-based systems. In principle, 2D cameras can capture and interpret movements. However, the algorithms used have difficulty distinguishing movements in front of the screen correctly – the precise capture of distance as the third dimension is missing. For this reason, 3D cameras or image sensors are increasingly being used for gesture control. They have become more affordable in recent years and can be integrated into almost any device due to their small size. These systems complement 2D image data with depth information, mostly obtained through Time-of-Flight technology, which measures the travel time of a light pulse reflected by an object to determine the distance to the camera. Today’s image sensors can detect not only general hand movements but even the movements of each individual finger.

Detection via Thermal Imaging

However, camera-based systems require adequate lighting to reliably recognise gestures. This problem does not affect infrared sensors: they detect the infrared radiation emitted by the human body (passive sensors) or emit infrared radiation themselves as active sensors and capture the reflection. The corresponding algorithms then analyse the patterns and movements of this radiation. The sensors can also generate a depth image. Thus, various different gestures can be recognised depending on predefined movement patterns and algorithms. Nevertheless, systems based on infrared sensors tend to be more suitable for simple gestures. Since they are relatively cost-effective, they are used in many industrial, consumer and automotive applications.

Radar – Robust and Precise

Unaffected by lighting conditions, resistant to contaminants, and with high resolution, radar is increasingly conquering the field of gesture control. Even the smallest movements can be detected by a radar device, with the latest systems offering a resolution of just one millimetre. Radar sensors measure the speed, direction of movement, distance and angular position in real time to detect changes in the position of objects. This makes it possible to track and depict movements of persons or specific motion patterns. And for those who associate radar with the large rotating antennas on ships – the radar sensors needed for gesture recognition fit on a microchip.

AI and Edge Computing

No matter which technology is used for gesture control, one challenge remains: everyone performs gestures in a different manner. This means that the systems must be able to recognise numerous interpretations of a gesture. Artificial intelligence and machine learning processes are highly useful in this regard: through complex signal evaluations, gestures can be clearly identified and classified. To process sensor data in real time and achieve the fast response times necessary for device operation, machine learning algorithms are increasingly being executed locally on the chip, close to the sensor itself – typically referred to as the “edge.”

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Tired? Angry? Inattentive? Or even sick? A person’s state of mind or wellbeing can have a significant impact on their ability to use and operate machinery and on safety. This is why HMIs are being equipped with technology for monitoring a user’s vital parameters in an increasing number of domains. These interfaces are not necessarily used to receive and execute control commands from the user. They are mainly utilised to monitor the user’s condition and trigger an action when certain changes in their vital parameters are registered.

The healthcare sector is the natural home of such HMIs: from the tiny pulse meter clamped on a finger to the highly advanced, sophisticated technology of artificial intelligence – everywhere, HMI technology is an essential part of the assessment, monitoring and treatment of patients. Typically, sensors from various devices are stuck to the patient’s skin to measure brain waves, impedance, motion, blood oxygen and temperature data. A local processor system can create individual warning messages for the patient based on the data obtained and automatically alert a caregiver if it detects unusual changes in the patient’s condition.

Recognising cardiac activity

Thanks to the success of smartphones and smartwatches, many of these parameters can now also be measured in high quality wherever the wearer is. This includes cardiac activity, where two methods have prevailed. The simplest is the single-channel ECG: here, two electrodes are integrated into a smartwatch, for example. The electrode on the back of the device is in contact with the wearer’s arm, and the second electrode on the top of the watch is activated by touching it with a finger on the other hand. In the automotive sector, so-called multi-touch ECGs are used. Here, the ECG sensor technology is integrated into various positions such as the steering wheel, gear lever or armrests. The system automatically detects which electrodes are in contact with the user. Thus, ECG measurements can take place unnoticed in the background, while the human has a high degree of freedom of movement.

Analysing vital parameters through light

Photoplethysmography (PPG), which measures a person’s heart rate optically using infrared light, has an entirely different operating principle. It detects how much light emitted by the system is reflected by the skin. This amount depends on how much blood flows through the superficial capillaries. Since the blood volume in the capillaries increases with each heartbeat, more light is absorbed and less reflected in that moment. The system converts the reflected amount of light into a pulse wave. The heart rate can then be determined through this pulse wave analysis. If RGB cameras are used to capture the light, the respiratory rate and oxygen saturation can also be determined contactlessly by analysing the red, green and blue components in the PPG signals. Recent studies have shown that the pulse wave signal can also be measured with a camera placed a few centimetres to metres away from the skin.

Radar-based sensors

Radar-based sensors can even capture heart and breathing values through clothing and over a distance of several metres. Electromagnetic waves with a frequency of, for example, 60 gigahertz are used, which are reflected by the body. Based on the reflected rays, the sensor detects the vibration of the skin caused by the pulse wave. Such systems are already used to monitor the driver’s condition in trucks, trains or aeroplanes.

Cameras read emotions

Camera systems also offer several possibilities for monitoring vital parameters. In addition to photoplethysmography, they can also recognise a person’s state of consciousness. Special CMOS cameras – usually with a resolution of one to two megapixels – take 30 or 60 frames per second in the infrared spectrum, depending on the model. A downstream system evaluates them and analyses, for example, the driver’s direction of gaze or the frequency of eyelid closure. From this, conclusions can be drawn about a distraction or increasing fatigue of the person, and if necessary, an alarm can be triggered. State-of-the-art solutions are able to recognise – in part thanks to AI – the smallest changes in behaviour, sleepiness, negative emotions and the possible influence of alcohol or drugs. Ultimately, such a system can form a complete picture of a person’s physical and emotional state.

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The interaction between humans and machines is usually not one-sided, but rather a kind of communication: the operator issues a command and receives feedback on whether the command has been received. For example, with toggle switches, it is the changed position, and with push-buttons, it is often a certain resistance that must be overcome, sometimes coupled with a control light. Important for operators of many machines is also direct feedback on the force or the angle of rotation triggered by the operating part. For example, an excavator operator can feel the strength of the force with which a shovel penetrates the ground through the resistance of the operating lever of a hydraulic system. The same applies to machine tools: through mechanical operating parts, force and vibrations are transmitted directly to the hand and body of the operator.

The market for haptic touchscreens is growing rapidly

17.32 billion US dollars in 2022

47 billion US dollars in 2030

Source: Verified Market Research

Operate with feeling

With the introduction of electronic controls and operating elements, however, this haptic feedback has been lost. But thanks to microelectronics, the feeling can be replicated in modern Human Machine Interfaces. In general, sensors detect the force that the human applies to the operating part. If necessary, additional sensors also measure the force or angle at the executing part – that is, the tool, the shovel of an excavator or the wheel of a car. Micro-actuators at the operating part can then, for example, cause a noticeable counter-movement based on these measured values. The technologies used for this are summarised under the term “force feedback”.

Gaming leads the way

Such systems have been well-known in the gaming sector for a long time, for example with driving simulators: a steering wheel with force feedback technology generates vibrations and simulates gravity. High-end systems dial into the physics and the audio engine of a game to enable an ultra-realistic experience. The player feels in real time the roar of the engine of their virtual race car, the tyre traction, the nature of the terrain of the track and the feedback of the steering wheel. So it feels as if you are sitting behind the wheel of a real car.

Feedback from the car

Force feedback solutions are found not only in virtual vehicles but increasingly also in real ones: especially in the context of highly automated driving, the classic steering wheel with mechanical steering column is being replaced by mechatronic actuators – this is called steer-by-wire. Thanks to force feedback, however, the mechatronic steering wheel conveys exactly the same feeling as a classic mechanical one. Additional functions can also be realised – for example a vibration of the steering wheel when the car detects that the driver is getting tired.

Accelerator and brake pedals are also equipped with force feedback. Such active accelerator pedals with integrated actuator and freely programmable haptic signals can, for example, help the driver to drive as fuel-efficiently as possible: depending on the selected driving program, a variable pressure point in the pedal travel can be generated, which signals the optimal accelerator pedal position to the driver.

Haptic touchscreens

Even touchscreens, which are becoming increasingly popular as HMIs, can be equipped with feedback functions. If touchscreens are supplemented by sensors that measure the pressure of the finger on the surface, it is not just touch that can trigger an action, but also the press of a button. The received command can then, for example, be acknowledged by the display with a vibration. This is caused, for example, by electrostatic actuators. This haptic technology is characterised by a stroke of up to 0.8 millimetres, which allows for button-like feedback. Alternatively, piezo actuators are integrated into the display. This technology delivers a stronger and more precise haptic event. In contrast to electrostatic actuators, the deflection with piezo actuators is significantly smaller and is in the range of up to 0.3 millimetres.

Addressing the sense of touch without contact

However, operating elements are increasingly being controlled completely without contact, for example through glances, hand gestures or voice control. Until now, users have received control-related feedback in the form of displays or acoustic signals. The Institute of Construction Technology and Technical Design at the University of Stuttgart is currently working on enabling haptic feedback here as well. This involves the use of ultrasound waves: they are projected onto the palm of the hand, for example as circles, triangles or moving points, and produce a tingling sensation. Once you have learned the language of these signals, this feeling helps to move the hand in the right direction and at the right speed.

Feedback technologies are an important part of Human Machine Interfaces. They improve the user experience and open up new possibilities for the optimisation of safe and efficient workflows.

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Since the release of the first net-zero roadmap in 2021, there have been some positive developments: solar capacity expansion has reached record growth, electric vehicles are gaining more market share, and the industry continues to expand production capacity for these technologies. Innovation in clean energy has also led to more options and a reduction in technology costs. In the IEA’s original 2021 roadmap, technologies that were not yet on the market accounted for nearly half of the emissions reductions needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. In the updated version, this figure has now dropped to about 35 percent.

Nevertheless, significant measures are still required by 2030. According to the updated 2023 roadmap, global renewable energy capacity is expected to triple by 2030. At the same time, the annual rate of improvement in energy efficiency will double, sales of electric vehicles and heat pumps will increase sharply, and methane emissions from the energy sector will decrease by 75 percent. These strategies, which rely on proven and often cost-effective emissions reduction technologies, together will deliver more than 80 percent of the reductions needed by the end of the decade.

“Keeping alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C requires the world to come together quickly,” emphasises IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “The good news is we know what we need to do – and how to do it.”

IEA’s net-zero roadmap in detail

2021

• No new unabated coal plants approved for development

• No new oil and gas fields approved for development; no new coal mines or mine extensions

2025

• No new sales of fossil fuel boilers

2030

• Universal energy access

• All new buildings are zero-carbon-ready

• 60 % of global car sales are electric

• Most new clean technologies in heavy industry demonstrated at scale

• 1,020 GW annual solar and wind additions

• Phase-out of unabated coal in advanced economies

• Milestone: 150 Mt low-carbon hydrogen, 850 GW electrolysers

2035

• Most appliances and cooling systems sold are best in class

• 50 % of heavy truck sales are electric

• No new ICE car sales

• All industrial electric motor sales are best in class

• Overall net-zero emissions electricity in advanced economies

• Milestone: 4 Gt Co₂ captured

2040

• 50 % of existing buildings retrofitted to zero-carbon-ready levels

• 50 % of fuels used in aviation are low-emissions

• Around 90 % of existing capacity in heavy industries reaches end of investment cycle

• Net-zero emissions electricity globally

• Phase-out of all unabated coal and oil power plants

2045

• 50 % of heating demand met by heat pumps

• Milestone: 435 Mt low-carbon hydrogen, 3,000 GW electrolysers

2050

• More than 85 % of buildings are zero-carbon-ready

• More than 90 % of heavy industrial production is low-emissions

• Almost 70 % of electricity generation globally from solar PV and wind

• Milestone: 7.6 Gt Co2 captured

The post Explained: IEA’s Net-Zero Roadmap 2023 appeared first on Future Markets Magazine.

According to the World Energy Transitions Outlook by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), renewable energy will make up three-quarters of the global energy mix by 2050. Electricity will become the most important energy carrier, covering more than 50 percent of consumption by 2050. This renewable energy-based system will be characterised by a high degree of electrification and efficiency, supplemented by green hydrogen and sustainable biomass.

Profound Implications

These changes in the energy landscape will also lead to significant geopolitical shifts. A report by the “Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation” highlights that the geopolitical and socioeconomic impacts of the new energy age are as profound as the transition from biomass to fossil fuels two centuries ago.

Greater Independence

Unlike fossil fuels, renewable energy sources are available in some form in most countries and regions around the world. This increases energy security and makes most states less dependent on energy imports. Conflicts over oil and gas will decrease, and the strategic importance of maritime “chokepoints” like the Suez Canal will diminish. The new energy world could also alleviate social, economic, and environmental issues, which are often major causes of geopolitical instability and conflict. However, new dependencies and trade patterns will emerge, such as those created by new renewable energy sources or the closer integration of electricity grids across borders.

New leading Powers

The energy transition will also bring forth new leaders in the energy sector – countries that invest heavily in renewable energy technologies will gain influence on the international stage. For example, China has strengthened its geopolitical position by taking the lead in the race for clean energy, becoming the world’s largest manufacturer, exporter, and installer of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles. On the other hand, today’s exporters of fossil fuels will lose their global reach and influence if they do not adapt their economies to the new energy era.

“The renewables revolution enhances the global leadership of China, reduces the influence of fossil fuel exporters and brings energy independence to countries around the world.”
Olafur Grimsson, Chair of the Global Commission on the Geopolitics of Energy Transformation

Access to Energy for more People

Countries that are currently heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports will be able to significantly improve their trade balance in the future by generating a larger share of their energy domestically. This will also reduce the risks associated with vulnerable energy supply lines and volatile fuel prices. Renewable energy will help provide more people with access to energy, create jobs, and promote sustainable economic growth.

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Being mindful of energy use pays off, as the cheapest and most climate-friendly kilowatt-hour is the one that isn’t consumed at all. Achieving high energy efficiency is crucial to avoid unnecessary energy losses. Energy efficiency refers to the ratio of energy input to its useful output. Over the past years and decades, many efforts have been made to waste less energy, such as through more efficient LED lighting, improved vehicle fuel efficiency, and advancements in industrial processes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that implementing all options to increase energy efficiency could save more than five gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalents by 2030.

“Energy efficiency has many additional benefits. It improves air quality, helps businesses save energy so they can reinvest savings into other productive areas, and promotes more efficient industrial processes,” says EU Commissioner Kadri Simson.

Global Energy Efficiency increases

Since 2020, global investments in energy efficiency have risen by 45 percent according to the IEA. For example, nearly all countries now have efficiency standards for air conditioning, and the number of countries with standards for more efficient industrial motors has tripled over the last decade. However, the global improvement in energy intensity – the amount of energy required to produce a unit of gross domestic product (GDP) – has slowed. In 2023, it improved by only 1.3 percent, well below the rate needed to achieve climate targets.

“The world’s climate ambitions hinge on our ability to make the global energy system much more efficient. If governments want to keep the 1.5 °C goal within reach while supporting energy security, doubling energy efficiency progress this decade is critical,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

National examples show that it can be done differently. For instance, the European Union improved its energy intensity by eight percent in 2022 and by five percent in 2023. The United States achieved a four percent improvement in 2023.

Reducing Conversion Losses

In the All Electric Society, efforts are mainly focused on the more efficient use of electricity. A crucial lever in this regard is reducing losses during the conversion of electrical energy. When electricity is converted in terms of voltage form (direct or alternating current), voltage level, current, and frequency, losses inevitably occur. Static and dynamic conduction losses in the semiconductor materials of power electronics increase switching losses during the provision, distribution, and use of electrical energy, thus increasing the consumption of valuable primary energy. In Europe alone, an estimated three terawatt-hours of electrical energy are wasted annually due to conversion losses – a figure that is rising. To achieve significant energy savings, improvements must start with the semiconductor materials themselves.

Increasing Efficiency with SiC and GaN

The silicon components currently established in power electronics are being replaced by more powerful semiconductors with wide bandgaps (WBG), which have superior physical and electrical properties. Semiconductor materials such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) offer higher switching speeds and better thermal properties. SiC is particularly in demand for high-power applications like electric vehicles and industrial motors, while GaN excels in low-voltage applications such as fast chargers for consumer products. Overall, both semiconductor materials enable significantly higher efficiencies in power conversion: in typical applications like power supply modules or inverters, efficiency improvements of three to five percent can be achieved.

Future with Ultra-Wide Bandgap (UWBG) Semiconductors

It is already foreseeable that in the future, even WBG components will be surpassed by semiconductors with ultra-wide bandgaps (UWBG). A promising UWBG semiconductor is aluminium nitride (AlN). Compared to established silicon components, AlN/GaN transistors, which have already been successfully manufactured on AlN wafers in research projects, exhibit up to three thousand times lower conduction losses and are about ten times more powerful than SiC components.

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